Introduction

The European Union has traditionally been seen as an economic power rather than a military one. However, recent geopolitical instability especially the war in Ukraine has revived debate about “strategic autonomy.” This refers to the EU’s ability to act independently in defence and key economic sectors without relying on external powers, particularly the United States.

Although defence spending and industrial coordination are increasing, continued reliance on NATO and political divisions among member states suggest that full strategic autonomy remains constrained.

The EU remains militarily dependent on the United States.
In 2023, the United States accounted for approximately 68% of total NATO defence expenditure (NATO, 2023). Meanwhile, EU member states collectively spent around €240 billion on defence in 2022, representing a 6% increase from the previous year (European Defence Agency, 2023).

Although EU defence spending is rising, the imbalance within NATO demonstrates that Europe still depends heavily on American military capabilities. The US provides key assets such as intelligence, logistics, and nuclear deterrence. From a realist perspective, states prioritise survival and security, meaning European governments are unlikely to abandon US guarantees until they can match these capabilities independently. Therefore, increased spending alone does not equal strategic autonomy.

There is political disagreement within the EU about what autonomy should mean. Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly argued that Europe must achieve “strategic sovereignty” to avoid dependence on global powers (Macron, 2020). However, countries such as Poland strongly prioritise NATO and American military presence, particularly due to proximity to Russia.

This division reflects different security priorities across the EU. For France, autonomy strengthens Europe’s global role. For Eastern European states, US troops provide immediate deterrence. Liberal institutionalist theory suggests that cooperation depends on shared interests; however, these diverging threat perceptions make deep military integration difficult. Without political unity, strategic autonomy cannot fully develop.

Strategic autonomy also has an economic dimension

Before 2022, Russia supplied around 40% of EU gas imports (European Council, 2022). Following the invasion of Ukraine, the EU rapidly diversified energy supplies and invested in renewables. In addition, the European Commission (2021) emphasised strengthening domestic defence industries and reducing reliance on external supply chains.

This demonstrates that autonomy is not just about military independence but also economic resilience. Controlling energy and industrial supply chains reduces vulnerability to geopolitical pressure. Political economist David Harvey (2012) argues that states reorganise economic space in times of crisis to protect stability. The EU’s shift towards industrial policy and energy diversification reflects this logic.

Structural limitations prevent full autonomy in the short term.
The EU lacks a unified military command structure comparable to NATO, and defence procurement remains largely national rather than collective (European Defence Agency, 2023).

Additionally, France is the only EU member state with nuclear weapons. These structural constraints limit Europe’s ability to act independently in high-intensity conflict. Strategic autonomy requires integrated forces, shared decision-making, and long-term political commitment. While progress is visible, current reforms appear incremental rather than transformative. Therefore, autonomy may function more as a strategic hedge against uncertainty than as a complete separation from the United States.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the EU is taking significant steps towards strategic autonomy through increased defence spending, industrial coordination, and energy diversification. However, continued reliance on NATO, political divisions between member states, and structural military limitations suggest that full autonomy remains constrained.

Rather than replacing the United States, Europe appears to be preparing for a world in which American guarantees cannot be assumed. Strategic autonomy, therefore, represents adaptation rather than independence. Whether it evolves into genuine geopolitical sovereignty will depend on sustained investment and political unity across the Union.

References

European Commission (2021) Strategic Compass for Security and Defence. Brussels: European Commission.

European Council (2022) EU Response to Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine. Brussels: European Council.

European Defence Agency (2023) Defence Data 2022. Brussels: EDA.

Harvey, D. (2012) Rebel Cities: From the Right to the City to the Urban Revolution. London: Verso.

Macron, E. (2020) Speech on European Strategic Sovereignty.

NATO (2023) Defence Expenditure of NATO Countries (2014–2023). Brussels: NATO.