Commodities Weekly #1: Oil Prices Settle at 3-Week Low

Welcome to the first ever edition of Commodities weekly, where we break down the key macroeconomic and geopolitical drivers shaping global commodities markets. This week is focused on oil which slid to a three-week low.

Oil prices dropped to a 3-week low on Friday, as traders reacted to negative economic signals from both the U.S. and China, the two largest consumers of crude. The decline, however, was partially cushioned by optimism around potential U.S. trade deals that could eventually boost global economic growth and oil demand.

• Brent crude futures fell 74 cents (–1.1%) to settle at $68.44

• West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 87 cents (–1.3%) to $65.16

These were the lowest settlement levels for Brent since July 4, and for WTI since June 30.

On the week, Brent was down ~1% and WTI down ~3%.

Supply: Set to Increase?

Several developments suggest global oil supply could expand in the near term, despite geopolitical risks:

• Venezuela: The U.S. is preparing to allow partners of Venezuela’s state-run PDVSA, starting with Chevron, to resume limited operations. This could boost Venezuelan oil exports by 200,000+ barrels per day, helping ease tightness in the heavier crude market, according to ING analysts.

• Iran: Talks with European powers resumed on Friday, following last month’s escalation involving Israel and the U.S. Any deal that leads to sanction relief would allow Iran to ramp up oil exports, further adding to global supply.

• OPEC+ Outlook: A Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet Monday. While it doesn’t set policy, some delegates expect the group to support an increase in output to recapture market share, especially while summer demand remains strong.

• Russia: Oil exports from western ports are expected to fall to 1.77 million barrels/day in August, down from 1.93 million in July, per Reuters.

• U.S. Rig Count: Energy firms cut the number of active oil and gas rigs for the 12th time in 13 weeks, according to Baker Hughes. This reflects ongoing caution among U.S. producers despite price movements.

Final thoughts:

Despite oils recent slide, markets remain delicately balanced between growing supply signals and fragile demand outlooks. With the potential return of Iran and Venezuela to global markets and OPEC+ reconsidering its position, next weeks headlines may shift from price softness to geopolitical reaction.

Markets Roundup (as of Friday the 25 of July)

| Asset | Price (Friday) | Weekly Move |

| Brent Crude | $68.78 | -1.21% |

| WTI Crude | $65.06 | -3.24% |

| Gold | $3,390.50 | -0.46% |

| Copper | $9,788.00 | +1.25% |